Market context :
- Month and week up trend
- 5-Day balance ( 55.66 – 57.92 )
- 3 Poor Lows ( 30/10, 2/11, 6/11 )
- 2 Poor Highs ( 9/11, 10/11 )
- Overnight : Short ( Pivot 56.81 )
- Friday’s short term : Short ( Pivot 56.83 )
Opening characteristics :
- Opened inside Friday’s range
- Early no conviction
We opened with no conviction and inside Friday’s profile.
In “C” period we traded up to Friday’s POC but we had no follow-through and were showing a high volume area at 57.03 – 57.10.
When we opened in “E” period we had a poor low at “B” low and a selling tail at “C” high and value was developing overlapping to lower. POC was migrating higher though. Odds switched to the down side because of value, selling tail and poor low but the real opportunity came when we traded below the “E” period low ( 56.85 ) in “F”. That level was also below the inventory pivots ( 56.83 – 56.81 ).
Because of the low conviction at the open and the prominency of the intraday POC, two target levels were in reach, Friday’s low at 56.55 and 8/11 low at 56.41. We traded down to 56.30.
Aggressive traders could look to get long down there considering the open low conviction and prominency of the intraday POC.
We left a big buying tail at the bottom and closed around the intraday POC.
Maybe two opportunities at the most were offered to traders today.
Key mind set factors :
- In “C” period ( Monitoring for continuation )
In “C” it seemed that short covering could have attracted traders to get in developing into a trend.
But we didn’t see continuation. High volume area in “C” high, value developing overlapping to lower and “C” rejection ( Selling Tail ) should have shifted the odds on the short side.
- ” In “F” period low ( buying opportunity )
We should already know that the early market conviction was low and we had 6 TPOs at the POC after 6 periods making the POC very prominent at that time decreasing the odds of a trending market.
Good Trading !