CL Trading day 21 November 2017

posted in: Market Recap 0

Market Context ;

  1. Monthly up trend
  2. 11-Day and 3-Week balance ( 55.08 – 58.08 )
  3. Many poor highs on the day chart ( 9/11, 10/11, 17/11 )
  4. Day up trend inside the balance area.
  5. Yesterday Prominent POC
  6. Very Prominent unrevisited POC 57.02 ( 13/11 )

Inventories :

  1. Overnight long ( Pivot 56.60 )
  2. Yesterday short term slightly long ( Pivot 56.14 )

Open characteristics :

  1. Gap up
  2. Conviction : Low

 

 

Gap rule in play. We opened just below the overnight inventory pivot and conviction was low. “B” period traded through the overnight pivot level confirming Gap rule 1 and value was clearly developing higher putting the odds in favor of long side.. The target was the very prominent POC from November 13 at 57.02.

We reached that target in “C” period and that was a good opportunity to take profit. The market didn’t show continuation as “D” period never traded above “C” period high. Furthermore high volume area developed in “C” period at the 57.05-57.14 level. Continuation ended when “E” period traded below “D” low. Intraday POC migration was up and I was buyer around the 56.59 level. I will explain why.

I was buying at the Value area low ( 56.59 ) because :

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. We left a strong selling tail at the top as shown on the above image.
  2. One time framing went from up to down in “E” period.
  3. Because of previous two reasons above I was anticipating the market to turn from up trend to balance condition.

In “H” period migration started migrating down so I went flat.

 

The key mindset to make money today :

  1. Realizing that we opened on a gap, filled it and rejected it.
  2. Developing value was higher
  3. Overnight inventory was not corrected and trading above its pivot level was extremely bullish
  4. Non continuation of the bull move in “C” period confirmed in following periods with Selling tail and one time framing down
  5. Balancing condition starting in ‘H” period.

 

Good Trading !